I am an amateur programmer and I decided to code a biotech stock algorithm. What sort of indicators do you guys think would be good for biotech stocks? I’m currently looking at MACD and RSI and trying to find a way to pull data from BioPharmCatalyst. Any other suggestions? submitted by
Btw I’m not sure if this post is within the rules of the sub, feel free to delete if it’s not.
Hi everybody. Hopefully this post doesn't sound too rant-y but I'm pretty frustrated by the amount of info out there that I'm not able to pick up on. There just seems to be a million ways to do calculated expected move. Here's what I've gathered so far.
There seems to be two general methods:
First Method: IV-Based
- One Standard Deviation Move = (P) (IV) (DTE/365)^0.5
where P = price, IV = annualized implied volatility, DTE = days to expiration [0
This means that there is a 68% probability that the stock in question will be between -1 and +1 sigma at the date of expiration, a 95% probability between -2 and +2, and a 99% probability between -3 and +3.
Sometimes 250-252 is used instead of 365, which seems to be the case when DTE refers to market days until expiration. Is that correct?
There are a number of ways to calculate IV. I would appreciate it if somebody could elaborate on which might be best and the differences between them:
- ThinkOrSwim uses the Bjerksund-Stensland Model  - I assume this is the "annualized" implied volatility aforementioned, because it is an IV value assigned to the stock as a whole ... what does that mean? I thought IV values were only calculated for a specific option contract??
- As an aside, ToS in particular confuses me because none of the IVs seem to correlate - Exhibit A
- I thought I might look into how VIX was priced off of SPY , as an analog, and use it as a basis for finding IV for any other stock as a whole. I don't know where they got their formula from
- Backsolve for IV using Black-Scholes . This would only gives one value for IV, which I think only applies to that specific option contract and not to the stock as a whole??
- Some websites say to use the IV given that is closest to the desired time period  - of course I have no idea how the IV is calculated in the first place (Bjerksund-Stensland again? Black-Scholes?) What's the difference between using the IV of a weekly or a yearly option?
- Brenner and Subrahmanyam  - understood that this seems to be just an approximation. Should I be looking at formulas from 1988, however?
A very big question of mine is why there is an implied volatility for the stock as a whole and an implied volatility for every other options contract. I can kind of understand it both ways - why should a later-expiry contract have the same IV as an earlier-expiry contract? On the other hand, why should they be different? Why isn't there just one IV for the stock as a whole?
Second Method: Straddle-Based
My understanding is that this is more used for binary events like earnings, but in general I've found two methods:
- Expected Move = (0.85) (Front Month Straddle)  OR
- Expected Move = (Price of Straddle close to Desired Time Period) / (Price of Underlying) 
I have no idea where  comes from and I can sort of understand 6 but not really.
In the end, I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible. Is there a best, preferred
method to calculating the expected move of a stock in a given timeframe? Is there a best, preferred method to calculating IV (I'm inclined to go with ToS's model simply because they're large and trusted). Is there some Python library
out there that already does this? For a retail trader like me, does it even matter
Any help is appreciated. Thanks!
Last month, a lot of us had fun with Crypto March Madness
, where the person who guessed which cryptocurrency would come out on top (from a price change perspective) during a several week period won 0.5 ETH.
Today, I want to introduce the community to another opportunity to test your crypto price prediction skills (and win) starting on April 17, 2018
On that day, a new price prediction Dapp will launch, which has been in development over the last 5 months. It's called Ethorse, and you may have heard people talking about the Dapp from an investment perspective.
I'm not here to ask you to invest, but to let you know that when the Dapp goes live, it will provide an opportunity for skilled traders, technical analysts and investors to earn ETH daily using their existing knowledge and experience. But first, a word about what Ethorse is — and is not. Ethorse Price Prediction = Binary Options Trading Many consider Ethorse to be a pure gambling app. In my opinion
It is not. It allows players to engage in a form of skills-based binary options trading
, which for the uninitiated is defined as (from Wikipedia) (note: I've edited this statement to clarify that my opinion is that this is not a pure gambling app, but rather a skills-based betting opportunity, many disagree as you'll see blow) :
"'Binary options' are based on a simple 'yes' or 'no' proposition: Will an underlying asset be above a certain price at a certain time? Traders place wagers as to whether that will or will not happen. [And win money based on whether they are correct.]"
It should be noted that Ethorse can operate without the noted downsides related to fraud and manipulation (associated with binary options) due to it being operated via a trustless smart contract that has been vetted in an open source and transparent fashion and is available for anyone to examine.
This form of trading is common in the United States, for example (according to Wikipedia):
"In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission approved exchange-traded binary options in 2008. Trading commenced on the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in May and June 2008."
Essentially, Ethorse players can bet (a minimum of 0.01 ETH) on "races" focused on measuring which coins (BTC, ETH or LTC) will increase in value the most over one-hour, or 24-hour periods. Note
: As is normally the case with parimutuel betting (the type of betting currently offered on Ethorse), the "house" takes a 5% cut of all amounts bet. This amount, which is delivered to developers and investors as dividends, helps cover ongoing product maintenance, marketing and feature development, and rewards investors for funding initial platform development.
*According to the developers
, the platform will "go live April 17, 2018, 17:00 GMT."
"[The developers will place up to 25 ETH on bets] during day 1 [April 17]. Afterward, "the team will use its funds to place ... bets in an automated fashion [daily]. Bets will be randomized to be placed on one coin per race and on a few races every day." By seeding the races, the developers are guaranteeing that there will always be a pot of ETH worth playing for from launch into the immediate future. Earning Potential With Ethorse (Obviously, These Results May Not Represent Typical Potential Earnings and Odds Are Only Applicable to Winning Bets)
(Note: After posting this originally,many noted that I'm making it seem like these are guaranteed results. These numbers are based on my experience playing the Dapp over 40 times during the beta. Odds and potential earnings may change in the live game. Of course, play at your own risk and don't assume your returns will look anything like this.
For TA crypto experts, traders and investors, Ethorse provides a fun way to earn extra ETH during bull and bear markets by using skills they have honed over months or years. Instead of fretting over a red day on the markets
, you can turn your market knowledge into profit by participating in Ethorse races.
Here are some numbers to chew over:
-On average, you can expect race winnings to deliver between 2.5x and 3.5x your initial bet (minimum 0.01 ETH bet).
-A 1 ETH bet can deliver about 2.5 to 3.5 ETH per race
-Many people have been playing 3 hourly races per day and 1 24-hour race daily on the testnet (beta platform)
-Your daily winnings could be between 3 and 5 ETH per day for a 30-minute time commitment (the time it takes to study the markets and prepare your bet). (This assumes that you lose 1-2 races per day).
-Weekly earnings could be in the range of 18-35 ETH (assuming 1 ETH bets and accounting for lost races)
-ETH is currently about $525 USD, which means you could earn from $9,450 to $18,375 per week.
This (significant) earning potential makes playing Ethorse, a potentially winning proposition, especially for those skilled at TA or with experience investing in the crypto markets by watching price charts, etc. A Few Disclaimers (I.e., Betting Is Risky) and Notes (This Game Favors Skilled and Careful Players)
: Some feel I didn't make this clear enough in my original post. So I'll say it now. Warning: Ethorse is not a get rich quick scheme. It takes time and skill (and money) to master the game. Play at your own risk and don't take unnecessary or dangerous bets.) Ethorse takes skills, with a dash of luck to do well in
. If you're not comfortable analyzing buy/sell walls, charts, setting price targets, etc. you might want to learn or brush up on those skills before taking part in Ethorse. But, if you're willing to put your skills to the test, Ethorse can be very fun (and potentially profitable).
Also, if you plan to play, don't bet more than you're willing to lose
and play conservatively
. A few small wins each day can add up over time to a larger stash, which you can use for bets. The faster you create a decent betting stash (from winnings), the more you can earn daily (as your bet amounts increase).
If you are interested in getting started, Ethorse will be on the Kovan testnet for a few more days. I strongly recommend you try out the game for yourself
and get a sense of whether it will be attractive to you. Here are some links.
-(You will need Metamask installed on Chrome/Brave and KETH, obtained from: https://gitter.im/kovan-testnet/faucet
, in order to try it out).
Good luck. May the odds be ever in your favor.
The world's largest futures exchange, CME, announces it has completed self-certification with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to launch its bitcoin futures contract on Dec. 18. The news comes as Cboe and Cantor Exchange self-certify for their own bitcoin derivatives. Bitcoin's price rises as the launch of bitcoin futures will pave the way towards establishing the digital currency as a legitimate asset class and launching bitcoin exchange-traded funds. CME announced Friday its new bitcoin futures contract will be available for trading on Dec.18. submitted by
The CME announcement came as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it will allow the world's largest futures exchange and its competitor, the Cboe Futures Exchange, to launch bitcoin contracts. A Cantor Exchange also self-certified a new contract for bitcoin binary options, the commission said.
Bitcoin traded 6 percent higher at $10,512, recovering partly from a 20 percent drop to $9,021.85 from a record high of $11,377.33 hit Wednesday, according to CoinDesk.
"I think it is going to enable finally the approval of bitcoin ETFs, and other digital currency ETFs, which is game changing," Barry Silbert, founder and CEO of Digital Currency Group, said on CNBC's "Squawk Box."
CME's announcement comes as other major exchanges rush to launch their own bitcoin derivatives products.
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